Reproductive Freedom on the Ballot: An Analysis
- WULR Team
- Feb 17
- 4 min read
Pro-Choice Voters Across Parties
Published February 17 2025
Analysis by Molly Strohmeyer
The results of the 2024 presidential election do not provide a conclusive verdict of America’s stance in the pro-choice vs. pro-life debate but instead reflect Americans’ trust in states’ protections of reproductive rights. The Democratic Party made abortion protection a hallmark of its presidential campaign, aiming to draw mass support from female voters and pro-choice sympathizers. This strategy reflected the idea that the abortion debate is a legal binary, with “pro-life” voters on the right, aiming to restrict access to abortion, and “pro-choice” voters on the left, opposing government restrictions on abortion. While Democrats’ bet on reproductive rights may have failed on the presidential ticket, protections were secured for several abortion-related ballot initiatives in this general election that supplement the recent loss of federal constitutional protections with some reproductive rights codified in state constitutions. Kamala Harris supporters have spent the weeks following the election grappling with a sense of betrayal and confusion, condemning the country for turning its back on women and reproductive issues. Their disconcertion may be eased with the silver lining of this general election: Americans across party lines are ready to support protections for abortion on the state level. Though concern for reproductive rights did not rally enough support for her presidency, Harris supporters are not alone in their desire for reproductive freedom.
The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade with its 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision welcomed a slew of attacks on reproductive rights, including fourteen states entirely banning abortion (1). The Dobbs decision took away constitutional protections for bodily autonomy and reinstated states’ power to prohibit access to abortion. Harris amplified these effects of the Dobbs decision to impress upon voters the importance and urgency of protecting reproductive rights at the national level. Harris expressed a commitment to working with Congress to pass a federal bill to codify abortion rights and promised to end the Hyde Amendment, which places restrictions on Medicaid coverage for abortion (2). Harris identified herself as the best choice to protect reproductive rights, but this was not a persuasive enough position to land her the presidency because it rested on a binary view of the abortion debate expecting all or most pro-choice voters to support her. 61% of Americans agree that abortion should be legal in all or most circumstances, yet more Americans voted for a candidate lacking a commitment to protecting these rights (3). Democratic aims of fundamentally protecting abortion in America failed to inspire voters to swing blue over other major issues like the economy, immigration, and crime.
In October, Donald Trump met with his staff, who outlined how a staunch pro-life position could hurt his chances in the election. He issued a statement positing: “Everyone knows I would not support a federal abortion ban, under any circumstances, and would, in fact, veto it, because it is up to the states to decide based on the will of their voters (the will of the people!).”(2) Trump assumed a position of neutrality on the issue of abortion to give pro-choice voters leeway to simultaneously support his bid for the presidency and defend abortion rights in their states.
In the two years following the Dobbs decision, pro-choice Democrats turned to state ballot initiatives to protect abortion rights, which Americans have broadly supported. Since 2022, state referenda in six states have passed. This includes deeply red states like Kansas, Kentucky, and Montana (3). Additionally, in the 2024 election, there were two swing states with abortion on the ballot: Arizona and Nevada. These referenda won with great margins, with 61.4% of the vote in Arizona and 63.8% of the vote in Nevada, both enshrining the constitutional right to abortion until fetal viability (4). Data from AP Vote Cast, a probability-based and state-by-state analysis of registered voters surveyed through mail, phone calls, and online methods has found that about 3 in 10 voters in Arizona, Missouri, and Nevada who supported their states’ abortion rights measures also voted for Trump (5). This demonstrates that pro-choice Americans did not default blue in this election and instead used their states’ referendums protecting abortion as methods for expressing their sympathetic views of abortion. It was not “either/or” in many pro-choice voters’ eyes. They perceived Trump as a better leader for other issues they cared about, and these voters’ concern for national abortion protection could not compare when they saw other avenues for protecting reproductive rights.
In Harris’ concession speech, she pledged to ‘continue this fight,’ encouraging voters disillusioned by the outcome of this presidential election to continue defending abortion rights within the states (6). Their fellow Americans have placed faith in Trump’s promises not to nationally strip abortion rights, which influenced his success. This apparent trust in states’ ability to protect these rights will be tested in the coming presidential term.
Carter, Sherman, Andrew Witherspoon, Jessica Glenza, and Poppy Noor. “Tracking Abortion Laws across the United States.” The Guardian, November 6, 2024. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2024/jul/29/abortion-laws-bans-by-state.
Astor, Maggie. “Where Kamala Harris and Donald Trump Stand on the Issues.” New York Times, September 10, 2024. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/politics/trump-harris-issues-election.html.
Pew Research Center. “America’s Abortion Quandary.” Last modified May 6, 2022. https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2022/05/06/americas-abortion-quandary/.
Kamarack, Elaine. “Women Favored Abortion Rights but Not Harris.” Brookings, November 7, 2024. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/women-favored-abortion-rights-but-not-harris/.
Varney, Sarah. “They Split the Ticket. Meet the Abortion Rights Voters Who Also Went for Trump.” NPR, November 9, 2024. https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2024/11/08/nx-s1-5184539/trump-election-abortion-votes-harris.
"Kamala Harris Vows to ‘Continue This Fight’ in Election Concession Speech." Irish Independent, November 7, 2024. https://www.independent.ie/world-news/north-america/kamala-harris-vows-to-continue-this-fight-in-election-concession-speech/a1010717633.html.
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